Swine Flu Could Infect Half of US this Fall; Take Precautions
August 27, 2009
By Melissa D'Amico for Body1
The global flu pandemic, expected to return to the United States this fall, could infect up to half of the US population, with 1.8 million hospital admissions, causing between 30,000 and 90,000 deaths, according to a report released by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST).
The report, released by the White House this week is the first official prediction of the approaching flu season, and the potential effects of the H1N1 flu, also known as swine flu.
Take Action |
Protect Yourself and Others this Flu Season
Frequently wash your hands
practice “safe sneezing” such as into a sleeve
Learn in advance about sick rules in your workplace and/or your child’s school
See if any adjustments can be made so you are less stressed about coming to work when sick
Stay home from school or work when sick
Keep your child/ children home when they are sick
See if your school districts arranges for your children to get a lunch even if they are sick
Arrange to get a Flu vaccine as soon as possible
If in a high risk group (have chronic condition or disease, or are child or elderly see what arrangements can be made to get an early vaccine
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Predictions suggest that the flu season could begin as early as September, reaching a peak by mid-October. However, the 2009-H1N1 vaccine is not projected to be widely available until mid-October. Therefore, there is an imperative issue to address, according to PCAST.
The report states, "This potential mismatch in timing could significantly diminish the usefulness of vaccination for mitigating the epidemic and could place many at risk of serious disease.” In other words, there may be many cases of swine flu before vaccines are widely available.
While it is believed by PCAST that this flu season is unlikely to resemble the deadly flu pandemic of 1918-19, the report says the current strain, “poses a serious health threat” to the US.
“The issue is not that the virus is more deadly than other flu strains, but rather that it is likely to infect more people than usual because it is a new strain against which few people have immunity. This could mean that doctors’ offices and hospitals may get filled to capacity,” according to a White House press release.
Through their report, PCAST has submitted a series of recommendation for preparation. The group’s key recommendations include:
- Accelerate the preparation of flu vaccine for distribution to high-risk individuals
- Clarify guidelines for the use of antiviral medicines
- Upgrade the current system for tracking the pandemic’s progress and making resource allocation decisions
- Accelerate the development of communication strategies—including Web-based social networking tools—to broadcast public health messages that can help mitigate the pandemic’s impact
- Identify a White House point person with primary authority to coordinate key decisions across the government as the pandemic evolves
Individuals can have a major impact on the severity of this flu season in the US. Frequent hand-washing and staying home from school or work when sick will be crucial in containing outbreaks.
The report recommends public education campaigns to reinforce these actions, and also calls for policy adjustments that can reduce economic and other incentives which may encourage people to risk infecting others.
In one scenario, workplaces could adjust rules for absentees, making employees less stressed to come to work when sick. Additionally, school districts could arrange alternative means of distributing lunches to children who are sick, but depend on school meals for nourishment.
The predictions of the PCAST report have been developed to aid planning for this flu season. While the seasonal flu causes about 36,000 deaths and 200,000 hospitalizations each year, the lack of immunity to the swine flu virus without precautions can lead to many more people becoming infected and and dying.
 Read The Full Report
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Last updated: 27-Aug-09
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